Posted by
Rajjpuut's Folly on Sunday, June 14, 2009 10:27:26 PM
The man should learn a thing or two about statistics. Europe has gone nuts for green-tech for many years now. The Spanish not only participated eagerly, but after 10-12 years they did a study on the results of their green-tech efforts. Results of that study were that for every job created by green technology 2.2 jobs were lost.
At only $775,000 to create each Spanish green job . . . it's a pity that only one job in ten so created was permanent, don't you think?
Oh’ Bummer Earns Well-Deserved
“Snake-Oiler” Label
At present, Mr. Oh’ Bummer’s socialist agenda is galloping upon us by leaps and bounds just as he promised/threatened. He also promised/threatened to spend a lot of money to bring in a whole new world of environmentally-friendly energy and other technology. This new wave is known as ‘green-tech.’ Like most everything else about Mr. Oh’ Bummer, green-tech is extraordinarily long on “flash” and ultra-short of substance. Let’s take a closer look at the phenomenon, starting with a little background:
Every once in awhile Public Relations and Marketing can work wonders. But it’s rare. People get used to “hype” and mentally subtract it from their projections. Two of the most telling stories (one positive and one negative) along this vein are these:
A. Advertising was NOT a powerful force at the turn of the 20th Century, here’s one reason it became so: A New York marketing firm was visited by a representative of the fishing industry. For a long time commercial American fisherman had been plagued by a “pest- fish” that was always fouling their nets. The fish wouldn’t sell. In Britain, he was told, the poor would wait on the piers to be thrown the unpopular fish which didn’t sell there either. At first the marketing man wasn’t sure he could help. He thought he understood part of the problem with this pest-fish, horse mackerel, however and did his research. No, he wasn’t able to discover any applications for the animal’s oil and it wasn’t looking good for the idea of converting it to fertilizer. A couple weeks later, just on a hunch, he said, “Say, what’s this stuff taste like?” After a few tentative bites, he decided he could tolerate it.
Further research showed him that the fish was extremely popular in Japan and the Far East and much beloved in the Hispanic world where it went by the name “atun.” In a few weeks he had a marketing campaign underway, and in 1903 they began canning under four different item labels: “tuna,” “tuna fish,” “tunny,” and “tunny fish” and it’s right now the most popular food fish in America. So words, particularly names, can be powerful influences to behavior and marketing is often crucial to success.
B. On the other hand, a smart-aleck agricultural extension agent was sent into an impoverished New Mexican community in the north central part of the state about 1965, with golden notions of winning over the locals, transforming their economy, and making an immediate name for himself. He brought with him a wonderful new technology in the form of a rugged, disease-resistant hybrid corn that he foresaw as the answer to the locals’ foundering agricultural commerce. As he explained in tolerably-good Spanish at the first meeting, their old corn was OK for at best 80 or 90 bushels an acre in the hard-scrabble soil they had to work with; but this hybrid he called “Maiz-Maravilloso” (Wonder-Corn) was tough and did well despite the semi-arid conditions the farmers faced.
He confidently guaranteed them 180 bushels an acre (smiling smugly when he said that, because he fully expected 240 bushels per acre the very first year). He was taken aback when only about 15% of the farmers took the free seed, but confident in three or four years he’d have 100% participation. The new corn was everything he said it was and the next year participation rose to almost 25%. In five years, however, no one was using wonder-corn, things went back to the way they were and he left with his tail between his legs.
The extension agent who replaced him asked a few questions about Wonder-Corn and found out “the flour’s much too hard to cook with, and it makes terrible-tasting tortillas.” Clearly, it’s always best to truly understand a problem, rather than just wading in and swinging your sword.
So it is with “green-tech.” There’s been enormous hype and a few great results, but generally speaking not much has been accomplished. The promise has seriously outrun results and in some cases the hype is still being sold long after the sad truths are known. The truth is sad, of course, because a more pristine earth, water and air benefit us all immeasurably in health, joy and lifestyle; and like it or not global climate change promises to cause us some huge problems even as early as 2025. But, BUT, there are some big “buts” with the notion of ‘green tech’ as used by the wily Mr. Oh’ Bummer. Off his tongue, the words “green-tech” become ‘snake oil.’
The trouble with Mr. Obama is that while he knows a tremendous amount about getting people excited about something, he knows almost nothing about science and less than nothing about economics. The trouble with science and with economics is they both own the nasty habit of forcing you to abandon starry-eyed notions and wishful thinking in order to deal squarely with reality. In economics we call those realities “inflation,” “supply and demand,” “management and labor,” and various “free-market forces;” in science those realities are known as chemistry, physics, biology, thermodynamics, metallurgy, industrial arts, etc., etc. The man should also learn a thing or two about statistics. Europe has gone nuts for green-tech for many years now. The Spanish not only participated eagerly, but after 10-12 years they did a study on the results of their green-tech efforts. Results of that study were that for every job created by green technology 2.2 jobs were lost. Creating five million green tech jobs, as he promises, threatens to cut 11 million jobs elsewhere in the American economy. The cost of creating one Spanish green-tech job was $775,000. At only $775,000 to create each Spanish green job . . . it's a pity that only one job in tens so created was permanent, don't you think?
The “Infamous Dreamer” (who likes to go around to environmental meetings saying, “Hi, My name is Al Gore and I used to the ‘next-president of the United States’) and Mr. Oh’ Bummer love to make you think it’s all so much easier than it is. In their version of Perfect-Tomorrow, you just wish it’s so, and PRESTO-CHANGE-O, it is so! Well, how do you like that!
After forty-fives years of promises, however, exactly three green-technologies have truly panned out: windmills, the “curvy light bulb” known as the CFL or compact florescent lamp, and solar paneling. And there is often a downside to green-tech that makes it unpopular: those beautiful new curvy light bulbs cost 8,000 GE employees their jobs. On the other hand, new carbon-fiber technology is promising to make dramatically more efficient windmills and also when used in car bodies: a lighter, stronger, more gas-efficient automobile.
The bigger present reality is unfortunately this, unless you’re a back-to-nature advocate and willing to live somewhat like the pioneers; or you’re a modern Howard Hughes willing and able to cover several acres in solar paneling and build a $1.5 million 200-foot modern windmill on your property . . . . then green-tech is probably not for you. Green-tech works wonders for the lunatic fringe of survivalists and the very rich but it’s just not practical for the 99% of American families who’re earning between $1,500 and $2 million a year. It just doesn’t get the job done. If a single word were chosen to describe the problems with green-tech, that word would be “impractical.” If a defining phrase were needed, that sorry phrase would be, “sometimes environmentally even worse.”
This is not to say, that a whole lot of progress hasn’t been made. 1) The acid-rain problems so serious in the northeastern United States and nearby Canadian provinces in the 60’s and ‘70’s is pretty much taken care of 2) Even though our automobile fleets deliver less efficiency than China and many other nations are requiring, nevertheless, automobile mileage today in America is dramatically better now than it was even twenty-five years ago 3) a whole lot of toxicity problems and emissions problems associated with manufacturing processes have either been eliminated or dramatically reduced 4) many of the toxic dump sites with the greatest pollution have actually been cleaned up and restored. 5) also, on the jobs level, a whole lot of jobs are now a whole lot safer both in the short-term and the long run because of green tech and common-sense adaptations.
As a general rule, however, the technologies resulting from governmental encouragement and subsidization of (or tax-breaks for) ‘green tech’ have proved to be expensive, dangerous and most importantly, in many cases WORSE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT then the technologies already in place. Almost everything has proven to be will o’ the wisp at best. All these detractions to green tech are sadly true, but a whole lot of the problem lies squarely with us, WE THE PEOPLE, and with worldwide expectations. While energy demands, per capita, have sky-rocketed since the middle of the 20th Century and expectations with them, green-tech is still at a level where it can on a practical and reasonable expenditure basis supply the energy required to live at, say, a 1912 lifestyle. The challenge is to make green-tech capability practical for supplying the energy needs of 2015 and beyond.
The history of man has been one long UN-interrupted journey up the energy-use ladder. A million years ago, the energy required for a man to flake a few flint tools and weapon points, then walk, jog or run ten miles throughout the day, and carry a deer over his shoulder for the last two and a half miles of it, plus the heat from a cooking, warming, and danger-shielding fire was all the energy anyone could ever imagine. Today, counting the many unseen manufacturing processes that go on in the background to give us all the myriad of products we use, the enormous energy required to lift a communication satellite into space, and little niceties like air conditioning, central heating, powerful automobiles and computers, none of which even existed in 1912 or even in 1972, the average American in a day, expends perhaps 11,000 times as much energy as our Neanderthal ancestors did.
So, where did today’s misty-eyed but misplaced optimism about green tech come from? It came from our glorious past. Hunkerin’ down and quickly toolin’ up the United States twice transformed itself from sleepy apathy into the mightiest industrial and military power of the age to help win both world wars. When given a time-table (“before the end of the decade, we will put a man on the moon”) by President Kennedy, we stole back the prestige lost to Sputnik and became the dominant power in space exploration. Unfortunately, those feats while difficult were certainly in the realm of straight-forward possibility.
Today, the hype about green-tech vastly outshines the reality. Often it’s a simple case of trading one problem for a much worse one. This shows up in ethanol which Mr. Oh’ Bummer is still pushing fiercely. Ethanol takes needed acreage from food farming and drives up food prices while dramatically depleting the soil. Ethanol takes huge fleets of trucks to move the corn to manufacturing plants and huge amounts of pollution is generated. And most importantly, ethanol destroys automobile engines, increasing our need for greater manufacturing and even more pollution. Pull your head out, Mr. Oh’ Bummer!
The technology to bring us highly efficient florescent bulbs to light our business with is another boondoggle. Unfortunately, the new bulbs are terribly expensive and while they do last a long, long time and use a tiny bit of energy, they carry poisonous mercury in them that is such a severe toxic hazard that if one is broken you’d need to clear out a whole floorful of office workers for a couple days to allow the cleanup progresses.
This particularly shows up in hybrid cars that Mr. Oh’ Bummer is absolutely crazed about. Hybrids are awfully expensive. You might buy one because the government gives you a tax break, which means you and other tax-payers subsidize their use on top of the purchase cost to you. It typically takes seven years for a hybrid to return in savings from fuel what the excess cost of the vehicle costs. But most of all, the original hybrid automobiles are an environmental disaster. If one is wrecked, a whole lot of bad environmental toxins can be released. The making of the original huge nickel-cadmium rechargeable batteries creates a toxic sludge that leaves whole acres polluted for an estimated forty years.
Heck, even old lead batteries are terribly dangerous: long-term exposure to their lead damages heart, brain, kidneys, the nervous system, etc., etc., ad nauseum and creates severe learning problems in children. The latest hybrids use something called “nickel-metal” batteries; the very latest something called “lithium-ion batteries.” Understanding toxic impact: lead is worst, the original lead is worst, but just a bit worse than nickel-cadmium; nickel-metal is next worst and lithium-ion batteries are the worst. All reports are that both nickel-metal and lithium-ion batteries are on a volume basis, much less environmentally nasty then either conventional car and boat batteries or then the old hybrid nickel-cadmium batteries. However, what’s not said is this: the volume of today’s batteries is much greater than the volume of yesterday’s batteries; and the only way the new batteries are expected to stay environmentally friendly is IF 100% of them are recycled back to the auto-making plants at great expense to the car-makers. There just are no easier answers so far.
All this doesn’t mean answers aren’t coming. It doesn’t mean absolutely no good will come of Mr. Oh’ Bummer’s green-tech initiatives. It just means, that on a practical level there is nothing yet in sight to get us anywhere close to where he’s promising to take us. The technologies do NOT presently exist. If they did and it were a matter of hunkerin’ down and toolin’ up, that would be one thing. But that’s presently NOT the case.
Take the idea of having virtually green fleets by 2020, balderdash! I am presently aware of only one technology that might, MIGHT, carry us there and because I’m a health educator not an industrialist, I could be dead wrong. It’s called Aquygen ®** and purportedly works by taking small amounts of water and converting it to HHO gas for fuel use. In theory, with tiny amounts of ordinary fuel and a tiny gas engine serving as the “primary-system” to provide the power needed for the Aquygen ®-powered “secondary-system” we’d have ourselves a full-sizes automobile capable of (the kind of gasoline mileage now reserved for motor scooters) 80-120 miles per gallon and SUV’s capable of 70-90 MPG. Unlike, Mr. Obama, I’m a-gonna tell you flat out, I may NOT know what I’m talking about, industrial arts is NOT my area of expertise. I will only say, the technology has been bantered about for about six years now so there are undoubtedly problems in turning promise into reality; but to my limited (car-nal, ha ha) knowledge: this is one thing that has a good chance of working. And with that revelation, we see both the promise and the frustration with green-tech. I only wish Mr. Oh’ Bummer would disappear and his replacement, Mr. President Obama, would shoot straight from the hip instead of selling us a bill of untrue goods. We don’t need cheerleading, we need facts.
Ya'all live long, strong and ornery, Bob
**http://search.yahoo.com/search?ei=UTF-8&fr=yfp-t-501&p=aquygen&SpellState=n-1219415753_q-OdJInmG0g67D8iUsT.iMhwAAAA%40%40&fr2=sp-qrw-corr-top will give you about 32,000 hits on HHO technology but virtually all will be dead ends.